Real-time play valuation

ABSTRACT

A valuation system determines in real-time values of plays occurring during games by identifying a play that occurred during a game. The system determines an expectation of scoring prior to the play occurring, and an expectation of scoring that results from the play occurring. The system then calculates a value of the play as the difference between the expectation of scoring that results from the play occurring and the expectation of scoring that existed prior to the play occurring, and any scoring generated by the play.

RELATED APPLICATIONS

The present application is related to the co-pending and commonly ownedU.S. patent applications having the following titles and attorney docketnumbers, each of which was filed on even date herewith:

-   1. ATHLETE VALUATION, Ser. No. 11/186,503;-   2. FANTASY SINGLE SPORT CHALLENGE, Ser. No. 11/186,602;-   3. FANTASY CROSS-SPORT CHALLENGE, Ser. No. 11/186,368; and-   4. GRAPHICAL USER INTERFACE FOR A FANTASY SPORTS APPLICATION, Ser.    No. 11/186,469.

Each of the above referenced patent applications is incorporated byreference herein in their entireties.

TECHNICAL FIELD

The described technology is directed generally to athletic competitionsand, more particularly, to techniques for measuring the value of a playthroughout the course of the athletic competition.

BACKGROUND

Fantasy sports and fantasy leagues are well known and becomingincreasingly popular with sports enthusiasts. Generally, a fantasy sportis a simulation game where participants, usually real sports fans,select or draft currently active real-life athletes to form fantasyteams, and a fantasy league consists of a number of these participantsand their fantasy teams. The fantasy teams in the fantasy league competehead to head against each of the other teams in the fantasy league, anda participant's success or failure in the fantasy league is determinedby the won-lost record compiled during a fantasy season by theparticipant's fantasy team. The outcome of a fantasy game is determinedby which fantasy team's athletes cumulatively performed better in eachof the athletes' real-life athletic competitions the previous week.

Typically, an athlete's performance is based solely on the statisticsthe athlete garnered during the course of the athlete's real-lifeathletic competition, as determined at the end of the athleticcompetition. For example, in a football fantasy league, points (eitherpositive or negative) may be assigned to athletes based on statisticssuch as touchdowns scored, extra points kicked, yards gained rushing,yards gained passing, completion percentage, yards gained receiving,fumbles recovered, fumbles lost, interceptions thrown, etc. In fantasybaseball, points (either positive or negative) may be assigned toathletes based on the number of total bases, number of hits, number ofruns batted in, number of singles, doubles, triples and home runs hit,number of runs allowed, number of hits allowed, errors committed, etc.

A major problem with assigning points based purely on an athlete'scumulated statistics is that it does not account for the differentsituations during the course of the competition. For example, a threeyard rush is different depending on the game situation. If the threeyard rush play results in a touch down to win the game, it is a success,but if the three yard rush play came on fourth down with four yards togo with the team losing by one touchdown with five minutes to play inthe game, the same three yard rush is a failure. Yet, conventionalfantasy football statistics count the plays based solely on theiryardage, and the three yard rush contributes the same to an athlete'stotal yards gained rushing during the competition, and the resultingpoints that are based on the total yards gained rushing.

Determining an athlete's performance based on the number of pointsexaggerates the problem. This is because conventional fantasy footballscoring counts the one yard between the one yard line and the goal lineas significantly more important than all of the other yards on thefield. For example, a wide receiver may have caught a pass onthird-and-twenty and ran for sixty yards to the opponent's one yard linebefore being tackled. On the subsequent play, the running back ran theremaining one yard for a touchdown. Has the running back done somethingspecial? Not really. Yet, conventional fantasy football scoring valuesthe touchdown more than the sixty yard reception on the third-and-twentyplay that set up the running back's touchdown.

Similar problems exist in conventional fantasy baseball scoring. Forexample, a home run hit by a batter in the first inning with the basesempty is valued less than a double when the team is down by one run inthe ninth inning with two outs and runners on first and second base.

Similar problems are present outside of the fantasy realm. Many NationalFootball League (NFL) scouts and talent evaluators determine the bestplayers by adding up all of the yards gained by each player withoutregard to the situations in which the yards were gained or how manyplays it took for the player to gain the yards. There is no distinctionbetween the fifty yards gained by a player while running out the clockin the fourth quarter against the opposing team's first string defensewith the player's team protecting a one point lead, and the fifty yardsgained by the player in the fourth quarter against the opposing team'sthird string defense with the player's team trailing by threetouchdowns. Similarly, in baseball, a home run hit by a player againstthe opposing team's fifth best relief pitcher while the player's team isleading by ten runs counts the same as a home run hit by the player thatwins the game for the player's team in determining the value of theplayer. Likewise, in basketball, ten points scored by a player while thegame is still undecided is counted the same as ten points scored by theplayer during “garbage time” after the game has been all but decided.

BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

FIG. 1 is a high-level block diagram showing an environment in which avaluation system may operate.

FIG. 2 is a block diagram illustrating selected components of thevaluation system, according to some embodiments.

FIG. 3 is a block diagram illustrating the derivation of a NES equationfor determining the net expected scoring, according to some embodiments.

FIG. 4 is a flow diagram illustrating the processing of the feed serverof the valuation system, according to some embodiments.

FIG. 5 is a flow diagram illustrating the processing of the sport serverof the valuation system to determine a value of a play, according tosome embodiments.

FIG. 6 is a flow diagram illustrating the processing of the sport serverof the valuation system to distribute the value of a play amongst theathletes involved in the play, according to some embodiments.

FIG. 7 is a flow diagram illustrating the processing of the sport serverof the valuation system to distribute the value of a play amongst theathletes involved in the intermediate states of the play, according tosome embodiments.

FIG. 8 is a flow diagram illustrating an example NES calculation anddistribution amongst the athletes involved in the intermediate states ofa baseball play.

FIG. 9 is a block diagram illustrating the derivation of a market valuefor a share of an athlete, according to some embodiments.

FIG. 10 is a block diagram illustrating the derivation of a value of anathlete, according to some embodiments.

FIG. 11 is a flow diagram illustrating the processing of the fantasygame server in conducting a fantasy sports challenge, according to someembodiments.

FIG. 12 is a high-level block diagram illustrating a single sportfantasy sports challenge.

FIG. 13 is a high-level block diagram illustrating a cross-sport fantasysports challenge.

FIG. 14 is a display diagram showing a sample GUI through which a usercan search for athletes in the valuation system.

FIG. 15 is a display diagram showing a sample GUI through which aparticipant in a fantasy sports challenge can purchase shares offinancial instruments.

DETAILED DESCRIPTION

An approach to measuring the value or significance of each playthroughout the course of an athletic game or athletic competition inreal-time is provided. The terms “game” and “competition” as used hereinrefer to the actual real-life athletic game, contest or competition, andare used interchangeably herein. Also, the term “real-time” as usedherein refers to processing as the plays are occurring within the gameor shortly after the completion of the game. In some embodiments, thevalue or significance of each play is based on the expectation ofscoring (i.e., number of runs, points, or other scoring method) based onthe state of the game (also referred to as “game state”). For example,at any given point in time during a game, a team has an expectation ofthe number of runs or points the team will score. In an individualsport, a player will have an expectation of the number of runs or pointsthe player will score. The expectation of the number of runs or pointsis based on the state of the game at the given point in time during thegame—i.e., prior to a play occurring during the game.

The factors that determine the game states vary from sport to sport. Forexample, for baseball, the factors that determine a game state mayinclude the current score, the current inning, the number of outs in theinning, the number of base runners and position of each of the baserunners, etc. For football, the factors that determine a game state mayinclude the current time in the game, the current down and distance, thespot or position on the field, the current score, weather conditions,etc.

Net expected score (NES) refers to the future expected scoring, and aNES is calculated for every game state. The NES for each game state maybe determined based on an analysis of the events that have occurred inactual games in a particular sport over a predetermined time period inthe past, such as, by way of example, three years. The NES for each gamestate may also be determined using techniques such as, forwardsimulations, random value assignments, and the like. The number ofevents analyzed for each specific situation—i.e., game state—needs to besufficient to provide an adequate event pool for deriving a NES equationthat receives as input the factors that describe a game state andproduces a NES for the described game state. In some embodiments, eachof the events in the event pool is analyzed to determine an expectationof the number of runs that should be scored—i.e., NES—for each gamestate. The NESs determined from the analysis of the event pool and theirgames states are then analyzed, for example, using any of a variety ofwell-known regression techniques, to derive a NES equation (e.g., linearregression equation, cubic regression equation, etc.) that outputs a NESfor any game state. The derived NES equation may include constants,coefficients and/or variables whose values are based on the factors thatdescribe the game state.

For example, in baseball, the number of events over a three year timespan may amount to over 500,000 individual balls put in play andstrikeouts. The 500,000-plus events are analyzed to determine the gamestates, and the game states are further analyzed to determine the NESfor each game state. The determined NESs and their game states may beanalyzed using any of the well-known regression techniques to derive aNES equation that is suitable for outputting a NES for each game state.A similar analysis can be performed for an adequate number of pastevents in other sports, such as football, basketball, etc., to determinea NES equation that is suitable for producing a NES for each game statethat is based on the analyzed pool of past events.

In some embodiments, a NES for a game state may be an expectation of thenumber of runs that should be scored during a particular segment of agame. The appropriate game segment is dependent on the characteristicsof the particular sport, and is generally based on the determination ofthe effect a game state has on the remainder of the game. For example,for baseball, a NES for a game state may be an expectation of the numberof runs that should be scored during the inning in which the particulargame state occurs. Here, the game segment is one inning—i.e., the inningin which a game state occurs—and this is based on the premise that gamestates do not carry-over from one inning to another, succeeding inning.For football, a NES for a game state may be an expectation of the numberof points that should be scored on a current drive—i.e., the currentoffensive possession in which the particular game state occurs. Here,the game segment is the current drive, which is based on the premisethat game states are not likely to impact drives other than the drive inwhich the particular game state occurred.

In some embodiments, the appropriate game segment for a game state maybe determined based on the premise that the particular game stateimpacts a multiple number of successive possessions—e.g., multiplepossessions in basketball, multiple possessions in football, etc. Forexample, for football, based on the effect of a play on a conceptgenerally known as “field position,” a change in game state may affectnot only the current offensive team's drive in which the change in gamestate occurs but also the opponent's next drive, the next drive for thecurrent offensive team, etc.

Each NES is an expectation of the runs that each game state isworth—i.e., the value of each game state. Then, for any given play, aNES is determined for the game state existing prior to the play(pre-play NES) and a new NES is determined for the game state that iscreated after the play (post-play NES), and the value of the play is thedifference between the NES for the ending game state (post-play NES) andthe NES for the beginning game state (pre-play NES) plus the runsgenerated on or by the play. In a situation where a number of playsfollow each other in sequence, the post-play NES for a just completedplay becomes the pre-play NES for the immediately succeeding play. Eventhough the score valuation term may vary based on the sport (i.e.,“points” for basketball and football, “runs” for baseball, “goals” forhockey and soccer, etc.), for ease of explanation, NES will be usedherein to refer to the unit of measure for the value of a game stateirrespective of the actual sport and the sport's scoring method.

For example, in a particular baseball game between Team X and Team Y inTeam Y's baseball stadium, Player A for Team X comes to the plate in thethird inning of a tie game with Player P pitching for Team Y. There areno runners on base, and there is nobody out in the inning. Given thisgame situation and from the analysis of the past events, Team X canexpect to score 0.54 runs in this inning from this point on. 0.54 is theNES for this game state. During this at bat—i.e., play,—Player A hits asingle. At the end of the play, Player A is now on first base and thereare still no outs in the inning. This is a positive result for Team X,and given this current game situation and from the analysis of the pastevents, Team X can now expect to score 0.91 runs in this inning fromthis point on. 0.91 is the NES for this new game state. Therefore, thevalue of the play—i.e., the total effect of the play—is +0.37 runs(i.e., 0.91−0.54).

Continuing the example, the next batter, Player B, comes up to bat withPlayer A still on first base and no outs in the inning. The NES for thisgame state is the 0.91 determined above. Player B strikes out duringthis at bat, leaving Player A on first base. The new game state is abase runner on first base with one out. This is a negative result forTeam X, and given this current game situation and from the analysis ofthe past events, Team X can now expect to score 0.55 runs in this inningfrom this point on. 0.55 is the NES for this new game state. Therefore,the value of the play—i.e., the total effect of player B's strikeout—is−0.36 runs (i.e., 0.55−0.91). The next batter, Player C, comes up to batwith Player A still on first base and one out in the inning. The NES forthis game state is the 0.55 determined above. Player C hits a double tothe gap between left field and center field scoring Player A from firstbase. As a result of the play, one run scores and a base runner, PlayerC, is on second base with one out. This is a positive result for Team X,and given this current game situation—i.e., a base runner on second basewith one out in the inning—and from the analysis of the past events,Team X can now expect to score 0.72 runs in this inning from this pointon. 0.72 is the NES for this new game state. Therefore, the value of theplay—i.e., the total effect of player C's double—is +1.17 runs (i.e.,0.72−0.55+1 run scored).

The NES concept can be similarly applied to other sports. For example,in a particular football game between the Rams and the Lions in theLion's home stadium, the Ram's offensive unit may have possession of thefootball on first down-and-ten yards to go at their own 30 yard line inthe first quarter. Given this game situation and from the analysis ofthe past events, the Ram's can expect to score 0.75 points during thisoffensive possession. 0.75 is the NES for this game state—e.g., avisiting team playing in the Lion's home stadium with the football onfirst down-and-ten yards to go at the visiting team's 30 yard line inthe first quarter. On first-and-ten, the Ram's call a running play andtheir halfback runs the ball for 30 yards to the Lion's 40 yard line. Asa result of this running play, the Ram's have the ball on firstdown-and-ten yards to go at the Lion's 40 yard line. This is a positiveresult for the Rams, and given this current game situation and from theanalysis of the past events, the Ram's can now expect to score 1.4points during this offensive possession. 1.4 is the NES for this newgame state. Therefore, the value of the play—i.e., the total effect ofthe rush for 30 yards on first-and-ten to the opponent's 40 yard line—is+0.65 points (i.e., 1.4−0.75).

In basketball, an offensive possession may be considered a play. In autoracing, each lap of a race may be considered a play. In someembodiments, a play may occur each time a change in the race standingsoccur during an auto race. Similarly, in sports such as cycling, boatracing, etc. where the competitors race around a track or coursemultiple times to determine a winner, each lap of the race may beconsidered a play, or each time the standings change during the race maybe considered a play. In duration races, such as the Tour de France,each leg of the race may be considered a play. In rugby, each change ofpossession may be considered a play. In volleyball, each point or“side-out” may be considered a play. In track-and-field, each heat,event, or trial may be considered a play.

In some embodiments, the valuation system determines in real-time valuesof plays occurring during games by identifying a play that occurredduring a game. The system determines an expectation of scoring prior tothe play, and an expectation of scoring that results from the playoccurring—i.e., the expectation of scoring resulting after the play. Thesystem then calculates a value of the play as the difference between theexpectation of scoring that results from the play occurring and theexpectation of scoring that existed prior to the play occurring, and anyscoring generated by the play.

The various embodiments of the techniques for measuring the value orsignificance of each play throughout the course of a game in real-timeand their advantages are best understood by referring to FIGS. 1-15 ofthe drawings. The elements of the drawings are not necessarily to scale,emphasis instead being placed upon clearly illustrating the principlesof the invention. Throughout the drawings, like numerals are used forlike and corresponding parts of the various drawings.

FIG. 1 is a high-level block diagram showing an environment in which avaluation system may operate. The environment is only one example of asuitable operating environment and is not intended to suggest anylimitation as to the scope of use or functionality of the valuationsystem. As depicted, the environment comprises a valuation system 102, aplay-by-play feed provider 104, and a plurality of client systems 106,each coupled to a network 108. As used herein, the terms “connected,”“coupled,” or any variant thereof, means any connection or coupling,either direct or indirect, between two or more elements; the coupling ofconnection between the elements can be physical, logical, or acombination thereof.

In general terms, the valuation system provides real-time valuation ofeach play that occurs within a game as it relates to each play's effecton the outcome of the game. The valuation system analyzes a play-by-playgame feed to calculate how each play impacts a team's scoring expectancyduring the game or during appropriate segments of the game. The value ofa play is the play's impact on the team's scoring expectancy. Forexample, if the team is expected to score 0.5 runs prior to a play, andthe team is expected to score 0.7 runs after executing the play, theplay's value is the difference in the team's scoring expectancy as aresult of the play (i.e., 0.7−0.5=0.2).

In some embodiments, the valuation system distributes a play's valueamongst some or all of the athletes identified as being involved in theplay. In some embodiments, the valuation system provides users theability to create and/or participate in an interactive fantasy sportschallenge in which participants act as “investors,” “traders,”“coaches,” “managers,” etc., to form their own portfolio of athletesfrom among active real-life athletes, and in which a winner of thefantasy sports challenge is based in part on the value of the portfolioand the real-life athletes' performance as determined by the playvaluation as described herein. Athlete valuation and fantasy sportschallenges are further described below.

In some embodiments, the valuation system comprises a web server whichfunctions to provide a web site that provides access to some or all ofthe features (i.e., services, functionality, data, etc.) provided by thevaluation system. The web site may be identified and addressable by thehostname part of a uniform resource locator (URL). For example, the website may provide a web page or multiple web pages, or other userinterfaces (UIs) including graphical user interfaces (GUIs), throughwhich users can obtain real-time valuation of plays during the course ofa game. The users may also be able to obtain real-life athletevaluations based on the athlete's performance in a game based on thevaluation of the plays occurring in the game. The web site may provide aweb page or multiple web pages through which users can register andcreate/participate in interactive fantasy sports challenges, monitor thevalue of the portfolios, alter the composition of portfolios (e.g.,buy/sell shares of financial instruments in real-life athletes), andperform other actions.

The play-by-play feed provider provides the play-by-play game feed tothe valuation system. In some embodiments, the play-by-play feedprovider sends the valuation system messages that contain theplay-by-play game feed. For example, the play-by-play feed provider mayprovide the valuation system the live, play-by-play game event feed forfootball games, baseball games, basketball games, etc. Only oneplay-by-play feed provider is shown in FIG. 1 for simplicity and oneskilled in the art will appreciate that there may be a plurality ofplay-by-play feed providers. For example, a play-by-play feed providermay provide the play-by-play real-time game event feed for the baseballgames, another play-by-play feed provider may provide the play-by-playreal-time game event feed for the football games, still anotherplay-by-play feed provider may provide the play-by-play real-time gameevent feed for the basketball games, etc.

The client systems may include any type of computing system that issuitable for connecting to and accessing the valuation system. In someembodiments, each of the client systems has a web client computerprogram, such as any of a variety of well-known web browser programssuitable for connecting to and interacting with the valuation system.

The network is a communications link that facilitates the transfer ofelectronic content between, for example, the attached valuation system,play-by-play feed providers, and the client systems. In one embodiment,the network includes the Internet. It will be appreciated that thenetwork may be comprised of one or more other types of networks, such asa local area network, a wide area network, a point-to-point dial-upconnection, and the like. It will also be appreciated that the networkmay not be present. For example, the play-by-play feed provider and thevaluation system may both reside on the same computing system andcommunicate via communication mechanisms, such as, interprocesscommunication, remote function call, internal communication buses, etc.,typically supported on the computing system.

The computer systems on which the valuation system, the play-by-playfeed provider, the client systems, and other components described hereincan execute may include a central processing unit, memory, input devices(e.g., keyboard and pointing devices), output devices (e.g., displaydevices), and storage devices (e.g., disk drives). The memory andstorage devices are computer-readable media that may containinstructions that implement the server application, client application,and other components. In addition, the data structures and messagestructures may be stored or transmitted via a data transmission medium,such as a signal on a communications link. Various communication linksmay be used, such as the Internet, a local area network, a wide areanetwork, a point-to-point dial-up connection, a cell phone network, andso on.

Embodiments of the valuation system may be implemented in variousoperating environments that include personal computers, servercomputers, computing devices, hand-held or laptop devices,multiprocessor systems, microprocessor-based systems, programmableconsumer electronics, digital cameras, network PCs, minicomputers,mainframe computers, distributed computing environments that include anyof the above systems or devices, and so on. The computer systems may becell phones, personal digital assistants, smart phones, personalcomputers, programmable consumer electronics, digital cameras, and soon.

The valuation system may be described in the general context ofcomputer-executable instructions, such as program modules, executed byone or more computers or other devices. Generally, program modulesinclude routines, programs, objects, components, data structures, and soon that perform particular tasks or implement particular abstract datatypes. Typically, the functionality of the program modules may becombined or distributed as desired in various embodiments.

FIG. 2 is a block diagram illustrating selected components of thevaluation system, according to some embodiments. As depicted, thevaluation system comprises a feed server 202, a sport server 204, afantasy game server 206, a market exchange server 208, a web server 210,and a database 212. In general terms, the feed server provides theexternal connectivity to the play-by-play feed providers to receive theplay-by-play game feeds, transforms the received game feeds from thedifferent data protocols to an internal format, such as XML, saves thereceived and transformed game feeds in the database, and forwards thetransformed game feeds to the sport server for processing to determine,for example, individual play valuation, etc.

The feed server comprises a plurality of play-by-play receivers 208,feed processor 210, and a messaging service 212. The play-by-playreceivers provide connectivity to, and receive from the play-by-playfeed provider the play-by-play messages—i.e., game feeds. The feedserver may create an instance of a play-by-play receiver for eachplay-by-play game event feed that is being received. The feed processorreceives from the play-by-play receivers the messages received from theplay-by-play feed provider, and transforms the messages into an internalformat, such as XML. The feed processor stores the received messages andthe XML messages in the database, and sends a copy of the XMLmessages—i.e., the XML format of the play-by-play game feeds—to themessaging service. The messaging service sends the received XML messagesdescribing the play-by-play game feed to the sport server forprocessing.

In general terms, the sport server processes the XML play-by-playmessages to determine a valuation for each play in real-time. The sportserver comprises a feed receiver 214, a command manager 216, documenthandlers 218, play-by-play handlers 220, and a performance valuationcomponent 222. The feed receiver receives the XML messages describingthe play-by-play game feed from the messaging service component of thefeed server. The command manager manages the multiple concurrent gamesby performing the necessary sequencing of the received XML play-by-playmessages in order to ensure proper determination of game states. Thedocument handlers parse the XML play-by-play messages. In someembodiments, the sport server maintains different document handlers forthe different XML document types. For example, different document typesmay be used for the different types of play-by-play feeds—e.g.,football, hockey, baseball, basketball, athlete statistics, etc.

The play-by-play handlers process the parsed XML play-by-play messagesto create the game event objects. For example, the play-by-play handlersaggregate the play-by-play data with the sport and athlete data from thedatabase to create the plays, game states, and performance events forthe athletes involved in the play-by-play game events. The play-by-playfeeds, instead of expressly identifying the athletes by name and/ordescribing the play, may identify the athletes and/or describe the playusing unique identifiers. For these feeds, the play-by-play handlersdereference the identifiers contained in the XML play-by-play messagesto identify the athletes and/or the play, as well as other informationrelated to the description of the play that is contained in the XMLmessages. In some embodiments, the sport server maintains differentplay-by-play handlers for the different sports. The performancevaluation component computes the value of each play that occurs within agame as it relates to each play's effect on the outcome of the game. Insome embodiments, the value of each play is determined based on the gamestates of the current play and the previous play, and the correspondingNES for the two game states. The NES may be based on an expectation ofthe play based on an analysis of historical game states that occurred inactual games over a period of time.

In some embodiments, the performance valuation component valuates theperformance of the individual athletes involved in a play by assigningpositive or negative performance points according to their participationin the play. The performance points assigned to an athlete can bethought of as a “dividend” generated by the athlete as a result of theathlete's participation in a play. For example, the performancevaluation component identifies the athletes involved in a play, andbased on each individual athlete's contribution and situationalexpectation of the play, the performance valuation componentappropriately divides the value of the play amongst the identifiedathletes. The value attributed to an athlete is the athlete'sperformance points or generated dividend.

In some embodiments, the performance valuation component breaks down aplay into its intermediate states or components that represent the flowof the play, calculates a value for each intermediate state, identifiesthe athletes involved in each of the intermediate states and, for eachintermediate state, appropriately distributes the value of theintermediate state amongst the athletes involved in the particularintermediate state. The intermediate states may correspond to athleteperformance events which are discrete, measurable components of theplay. For example, for baseball, the athlete performance events mayinclude the interactions between pitcher and hitter (e.g., pitcherpitching and the batter hitting), the batted ball and fielder (e.g., thefielder fielding a batted ball), the fielder and base runner (e.g., thebase runner advancing and the fielder preventing the base runner fromadvancing), etc. For football, the athlete performance events mayinclude the quarterback and receiver (e.g., quarterback throwing a passand the receiver catching the pass), the receiver and defensive back(e.g., the receiver running after catching a pass and the defensive backdefending the pass and tackling the receiver), etc.

The intermediate states have corresponding game states, and the seriesof game states represent the play from its beginning game state to itsending game state. The performance valuation component determines avalue for an intermediate state from the intermediate NESs associatedwith the intermediate states. The performance valuation componentdetermines an expectation of the each intermediate state based on thecharacteristics of the intermediate state. The expectation of theintermediate state is a probability of outcomes for the intermediatestate determined from, for example, an analysis of the events and, inparticular, an analysis of the intermediate states of the events thathave occurred in actual games. The expectations of the intermediatestates may be maintained in a table of relative probabilities in thedatabase. The performance valuation component determines an intermediateNES based on the expectation of the intermediate state. The performancevaluation component determines another intermediate NES based on theactual result of the intermediate state and calculates a value for theintermediate state using the two intermediate NESs. The performancevaluation component identifies the athletes involved in the intermediatestate and appropriately distributes the calculated value of theintermediate state amongst the athletes involved in the intermediatestate. Each athlete's proportion of the calculated value is theathlete's performance points or dividend generated as a result of theathlete's participation in the intermediate state of the play. Theperformance valuation component similarly repeats this process for thesubsequent intermediate states of the play as necessary.

In some embodiments, the performance valuation component may calculate avalue for a play without breaking the play down into its intermediatestates. In this instance, the performance valuation component maydistribute the calculated value amongst the athletes involved in theplay without taking into consideration various aspects of the play, suchas, by way of example, defense, base running, etc. This allows for asimpler distribution of the play's value amongst a potentially smallernumber of athletes.

In general terms, the fantasy game server hosts the interactive fantasysports challenges. The fantasy game server allows registered users toact as “challenge creators” and create custom fantasy sports challenges.The fantasy game server may also provide fantasy sports challenges. Forexample, a fantasy sports administrator may act as a challenge creatorand create fantasy sports challenges which the registered users canparticipate in. Registered users, including challenge creators, can thenparticipate in one or more fantasy sports challenges.

In some embodiments, participants of a fantasy sports challenge may beallowed to buy, sell, swap, discard, win, give away, steal, lose, tradeor otherwise acquire or divest financial instruments (or “variousinstrument vehicles”) in athletes. For example, financial investmentsmay be comprised of shares of individual athletes, mutual funds ofathletes, index fund of athletes, and other types of financialinstruments comprised of interests in athletes. Shares of an athleterepresent an equity interest in the athlete and a right to dividendsgenerated by the athlete's on-field performance. A mutual fund investsin a diversified group of athletes, and a share of the mutual fundeffectively represents an equity interest in each of the underlyingathletes. The mutual fund's underlying securities may be traded,realizing a gain or loss, and the fund collects the dividend. Theinvestment proceeds are then passed along to the individual participantinvestors. An index fund may hold a portfolio of athletes' sharesdesigned to match the price and dividend performance of the entiremarket or one of its sectors, and a share of the index fund effectivelyrepresents an equity interest in each of the underlying athletes. Theindex fund's underlying securities may be traded, realizing a gain orloss, and the fund collects the dividend. The investment proceeds arethen passed along to the individual participant investors.

In some embodiments, the fantasy game server interacts with the othercomponents of the valuation system to enable the participants of fantasysports challenges to establish their portfolios comprising of shares offinancial instruments in real-life athletes, alter the composition oftheir portfolios by trading—i.e., buying and/or selling—the shares ofthe financial instruments, and perform other actions associated withparticipating in the interactive fantasy sports challenges. The fantasygame server also receives information from the other components of thevaluation system to determine the value of the portfolios during thecourse of the interactive fantasy sports challenges and, at the end of achallenge, determines the ending value of the portfolios that areparticipating in the challenge. In some embodiments, the fantasy gameserver determines a value of a portfolio based on the market value ofthe shares of financial instruments contained in the portfolio and thedividends accrued by the shares of financial instruments during theduration of the interactive fantasy sports challenge. Interactivefantasy sports challenges are further discussed below.

In general terms, the market exchange server facilitates the trading andselling of shares of financial instruments. In some embodiments, themarket exchange server functions as a “market maker” in that the marketexchange server buys/sells shares of financial instruments from/to theusers of the valuation system, such as the participants of theinteractive fantasy sports challenges. In some embodiments, the marketexchange server establishes an initial public offering (IPO) price for ashare of each financial instrument. The market exchange server mayestablish the IPO price for a share of a financial instrument in anathlete based on an expectation of that athlete's expected performancein games (e.g., the expected performance points or dividends) during thecourse of the athlete's career. In some embodiments, the market exchangeserver sits at the end of each buy/sell transaction and adjusts theprice of the shares to create a constant trade balance between buyingand selling (also referred to herein as “buy-sell pressure”). The marketexchange server attempts to achieve a constant trade balance byadjusting the price of the shares accordingly.

In general terms, the web server functions to provide a web site throughwhich users can access some or all of the features provided by thevaluation system. For example, the web server may provide web pagesthrough which users can register and interact with the valuation systemto: obtain/view real-time valuation of plays occurring in a game;obtain/view athlete valuations based on the athlete's performance in agame; participate in interactive fantasy sports challenges; monitor thevalue of their portfolios; alter the composition of their portfolios bybuying/selling shares of financial instruments in real-life athletes;and perform other actions supported by the valuation system.

In some embodiments, the valuation system may provide the NES to variousmedia outlets, such as, television networks, cable networks, radionetworks, satellite networks, and other media providers, for use by themedia outlets. By way of example, a television network, such as, by wayof example, ESPN, might enter into a license agreement to receive theNES from the valuation system and display the NES on its web site. ESPNmay then display the received NES within the context of the game (e.g.,video feed of the game) for which the NES applies. For example, duringthe video feed of a game, ESPN might display the NES prior to each playduring the game to provide viewers a projected scoring expectation orvalue prior to each play actually occurring during the game. In someembodiments, the valuation system may broadcast the NES via its own website in a similar manner. In some embodiments, the valuation system mayprovide or make available the NES on a subscription basis. For example,one or more individuals desiring to receive and use the NES maysubscribe to receive the NES. For example, a subscriber may receive anduse the NES to perform his or her own analysis of athletes.

In general terms, the database functions as a repository for the dataand information used by the components of the valuation system tofacilitate the real-time valuation of each play that occurs within agame as disclosed herein. For example, the database may represent and/orstore information and data such as the live play-by-play game feeds, theXML documents that correspond to the plays in the game feeds, historicalgame data, the game states and the factors corresponding to the gamestates, the text description of the plays, the NES coefficients that areused in the NES equation for athlete performance valuation in a givenplay, etc. In some embodiments, the database may be implemented using aSQL server.

In some embodiments, the database functions as a repository for the dataand information used by the components of the valuation system tofacilitate the valuation of athletes. For example, the database maystore the probabilistic models generated from the historical game data,the athlete valuation distribution tables, and other information used toassign athletes performance points or dividends. In some embodiments,the database functions as a repository for the interactive fantasysports challenge data and the market data.

The aforementioned components of the valuation system are onlyillustrative and are not intended to suggest any limitation as to theimplementation of the illustrated components and/or the scope of use ofthe valuation system. For example, in various embodiments, one or moreof the components of the feed server may be implemented as components ofthe sport server. Moreover, the valuation system may not include one ormore of the depicted components or may include other components andmodules not depicted. Furthermore, the functionality provided for in thecomponents and modules may be combined into fewer components and modulesor further separated into additional components and modules.

In the discussion that follows, embodiments of the valuation system aredescribed in conjunction with a variety of illustrative examples. Itwill be appreciated that the embodiments of the valuation system may beused in circumstances that diverge significantly from these examples invarious respects.

Play Valuation

FIG. 3 is a block diagram illustrating the derivation of a NES equationfor determining the net expected scoring, according to some embodiments.In block 302, an event pool is created. The event pool is acomprehensive database of the events that have occurred in realgames—e.g., real football games, real baseball games, etc.—over apredetermined period of time. The events in the event pool are of asufficient number to determine the expected scoring—i.e., the averagenumber of runs that should be scored—for the game states represented bythese events.

In block 304, the games states corresponding to the events in the eventpool are determined, for example, from the conditions that describe theevents. In block 306, the game states are analyzed to determine theirresults. For example, the result may be the number of points that isgenerated in the segment of the game affected by a game state. In block308, the game states and their corresponding results are analyzed toderive one or more NES equations suitable for determining the netexpected scoring for a game state. In some embodiments, the game statesand their corresponding results may be analyzed using weighted leastsquares regression.

For example, analyzing the game states and their results in a baseballevent pool using the above regression technique may generate thefollowing NES regression equation for baseball:NES=F(N1,N2,N3,N4,N5,N6,N7,N8,N9,N10,N11,N12)  [1]

-   -   N1—NUMOUTS (the number of outs)    -   N2—Inning (Boolean variable)    -   N3—Lineup position (lineup position of the current of batter)    -   N4—Homeaway (1 if batter is home, 0 if batter is visitor)    -   N5—League of the game (1 for AL, 0 for NL)    -   N6—Offense score (total score in the game of team at bat)    -   N7—Opposite hand (Handedness matchup: are batter and pitcher the        same hand: 0 if yes, 1 if not)    -   N8—Is the batter a pinchhitter (1 if yes, 0 if not)    -   N9—Pitchcount (# of pitches thrown)    -   N10—Runner on 1 (1 if yes 0 if no)    -   N11—Runner on 2 (1 if yes 0 if no)    -   N12—Runner on 3 (1 if yes 0 if no)

The NES for baseball is primarily dependent upon NUMOUTS (i.e., thenumber of outs in the inning) and the configuration of the runners onbase (e.g., Runner on 1 st, Runner on 2nd, Runner on 3rd all take thevalue of 1 if a runner is on that base and 0 otherwise). NES is alsodependent, though less so, on the league the game is played in (e.g.,League=1 if it is an American League game 0 otherwise), whether the hometeam is at bat (e.g., Home is 1 if the home team is at bat and 0otherwise), the inning of the game (e.g., 1^(st) inning, 9^(th) inningand extra innings are all 1 if in that inning and 0 otherwise), theposition in the lineup of the batter (e.g., Lineup position is equal tothe number of the batter in the batting order), the number of runsscored by the offense (e.g., Offense score), whether the pitcher andbatter are of opposite hand (e.g., opposite hand is 1 if they areopposite and 0 otherwise), whether the batter is a pinch hitter (e.g., 1if the batter is a pinch hitter and 0 otherwise), the number of pitchesthrown by the pitcher in the game (i.e., pitchcount) and the park thatgame is played in (e.g., each park has a unique score that eitherincreases or decreases NES based on the correlation of the park withtotal runs scored).

The values for the above variables are determined based on the factorsthat describe a game state, and inputting values for the variables asdetermined from the factors that describe the game state into equation[1] produces a NES for the particular game state. Table 1 belowillustrates example NES outcomes generated using equation [1] for aparticular combination of factors and the listed game states orsituations (i.e., combination of the number of outs and the position ofthe base runners) for a particular baseball stadium or park.

TABLE 1 NES Runner on 0 out 1 out 2 out 0 0.534 0.348 0.165 1B 0.9300.540 0.290 2B 1.143 0.642 0.356 3B 1.409 0.767 0.437 1B, 2B 1.564 0.8400.484 1B, 3B 1.841 0.968 0.566 2B, 3B 2.073 1.074 0.634 1B, 2B, 3B 2.5331.281 0.765

Similar tables can be generated for the other combinations of thefactors and for the other baseball stadiums or parks. In someembodiments, one or more variables (i.e., factors) listed above may beomitted in calculating the NES.

In the case of football, a game state may be described by a number ofprimary factors and a number of other less significant factors. Theprimary factors may include the down, yards to go for a first down, andyards away from the goal, and their effects on the expectation ofscoring are predictable—e.g., each is more favorable for points beingscored when it is lower (first down is better than third down, andcloser to the first down or the end zone is better than farther away).Other factors that are less central to the value of a play, but whichmay still contribute in determining the value of the play may include,for example, time remaining, score and score differential, whether ornot the team is at home or away, what the surface of the field is (withturf being more conducive to scoring than grass), and the weather(measured through humidity and temperature). Any of a combination ofthese variables may be included in a regression equation to determinehow many points the offensive team was expected to score prior to theplay. After the play, the expectation is calculated again, using the newdown, yards to go, and so forth. The expectation prior to the play issubtracted from the expectation after the play to arrive at the NES ofthat particular play.

Analyzing the game states and their results in a football event poolusing the above regression technique may generate the following NESregression equation for football:NES=(N1+N2+N3+N4+N5+N6+N7+N8)*N9  [2]

The variables in equation [2] have the following meanings:

-   -   N1—Gives the number of points on the play (for all touchdowns,        the number is 7, based on the premise that the extra point or        two point conversion is not related to the play)    -   N2—Change in expectation (expected scoring) due to the play on        the current drive    -   N3—Change in expectation (expected scoring) on the opponent's        ensuing drive (if the current play is not a change of        possession)    -   N4—Change in expectation (expected scoring) on the opponent's        ensuing drive (if the current play is a change of possession)    -   N5—Change in expectation (expected scoring) on the offensive        team's next drive (if the current play is not a change of        possession)    -   N6—Change in expectation (expected scoring) on the offensive        team's next drive (if the current play is a change of        possession)    -   N7—If the play is a rush on 3^(rd) and 10 or more, then this        variable is 0.27, otherwise it is 0    -   N8—Fumble adjustment (positive if the fumble is lost and        negative if the fumble is recovered, based on the premise that        the outcome of a fumble is essentially random, and the fumbler        should not be punished excessively if the fumbler's teammates do        not recover the fumble)    -   N9—Is a 1 if the play is not a hail mary interception, kneel        down, or spike, otherwise, it is a 0

The values for the above variables are determined based on the factorsthat describe a game state, and inputting values for the variables asdetermined from the factors that describe the game state into equation[2] produces a NES for the game state.

In equation [2], because the value of the N9 variable is 1 on normalplays, it has no effect on most plays. There are some plays, however,where players perform acts that are generally considered negative but,in context, are either beneficial or at least not harmful to the team.For instance, a hail mary at the end of a game may be the only way for ateam to get the score it requires to tie or win the game. If this playis intercepted, negative value should not be assigned to the play norshould negative credit be given to the player—i.e., quarterback—whothrew the interception, since this play did not hurt the team's chancesof winning. Therefore, the N9 variable is 0 in this case, which makesthe entire play value 0 as well. This is also the case for kneel downsat the end of the game to run the clock out and intentionally groundedpasses—i.e., spikes—to stop the clock.

The variables N3-N6 in equation [2] account for the concept of fieldposition in football. While moving the ball from a team's own twentyyard line to midfield and then punting does not result in any points onthis drive for the team, it lessens the opponent's chances of scoring ontheir ensuing drive. The effects of the current play on the opponent'sfollowing drive are taken into account by the variables N3 and N4 inequation [2]. Beyond the opponent's next drive, the effects of thecurrent play on the current offensive team's next drive are taken intoaccount by the variables N5 and N6 in equation [2] in a similar manner.Therefore, in the valuation system, the value of a football play is theplay's cumulative effect on the expectation of scoring on the currentdrive (variable N2), the opponent's ensuing drive (variables N3 and N4),and the drive after that (variables N5 and N6).

One factor in determining the value of the variables N2-N6 (the changein expected scoring) in equation [2] is the position on the field ofplay—i.e., the yards from goal. The yards from goal of the offensiveteam's current drive, which is needed to determine a value for variableN2, can be readily determined from the current game state. The expectedyards from goal of the opponent's ensuing drive, which is needed todetermine values for variables N3 and N4, and the current offensiveteam's next drive, which is needed to determine values for variables N5and N6, may be determined from an analysis of the game states in theevent pool. A regression analysis of the game states in the event poolmay generate the following cubic regression equation for calculating theexpected yards from goal of the opponent's next drive and the expectedyards from goal of the current offensive team's next drive:Expected Yards From Goal=70.79+0.0164x+0.0039x ²+0.0006x ³  [3]

where x=the current drive's yards from goal when calculating theexpected yards from goal of the opponent's next drive; or the opponent'sexpected yards from goal when calculating the expected yards from goalof the current offensive team's next drive.

In addition to the yards from goal or expected yards from goal factor,the values for variables N3-N6 in equation [2] may be determined fromone or more additional factors that describe the game states. Forexample, a regression analysis of the game states in the event pool maygenerate one or more regression equations for calculating values forthese variables. By way of example, the regression formula fordetermining the value of N3 may include variables and coefficients forthe variables such as, the number of yards from the goal line, thecurrent down, the number of yards to go to gain a first down, the timeremaining in the half or game, weather conditions (e.g., temperature andhumidity), home field factor, type of playing surface, etc.

FIG. 4 is a flow diagram illustrating the processing of the feed serverof the valuation system, according to some embodiments. By way ofexample, a play-by-play feed provider may start feeding real-timeplay-by-play game events for a game, such as a baseball game, a footballgame, a basketball game, etc. In block 402, the feed server receives thereal-time game play feed. The feed server may receive the play feed in aseries of event messages. In block 404, the feed server transforms thegame play feed messages from their raw form—i.e., the protocol used bythe play-by-play feed provider—to XML format—i.e., XML messages. Thefeed server may save the raw messages and the transformed, XML messagesin the database. In block 406, the feed server sends the XML messages tothe sport server for processing of the received play-by-play game event.

One skilled in the art will appreciate that, for this and otherprocesses and methods disclosed herein, the functions performed in theprocesses and methods may be implemented in differing order.Furthermore, the outlined steps are only exemplary, and some of thesteps may be optional, combined with fewer steps, or expanded intoadditional steps without detracting from the essence of the invention.

FIG. 5 is a flow diagram illustrating the processing of the sport serverof the valuation system to determine a value of a play, according tosome embodiments. In block 502, the sport server receives the XML playmessage. The sport server may sequence the XML message to maintainproper game states and sequence of game states. In block 504, the sportserver parses the XML message to determine the play and the currentplay's game state. Depending on the contents of the XML message, thesport server may need to aggregate the data in the XML message with datafrom the database in order to determine the current game and currentplay's game state. In block 506, the sport server retrieves the priorplay's game state (i.e., game state existing prior to the current play)for the current game from, for example, the database. The sport serverthen determines a NES for the current play's game state (i.e., gamestate resulting from or after the current play occurring) in block 508,and a NES for the prior play's game state in block 510. The NES for thegame state may be determined using one or more NES regression equations,such as equations [1] and [2] above for baseball and football,respectively, which were derived from an analysis of events—i.e., gamestates—that have occurred in past games. In block 512, the sport servercalculates a value for the play using the NESs for the current and priorgame states. The sport server may save the current play game state andits NES in the database.

In some embodiments, the NES may be based on simulation. For example, amodel may be created where individuals (athletes) or groups (teams)participating in a game would be represented by “agents.” These agentscan then be given different characteristics that represent differentattributes and skill levels. The outcome of a game or a game situationcan then be simulated, for example, using a computing device, and thisresult may be used to determine the expected scoring.

Football Play Valuation Example

Team W is on offense and has the ball at its own 40 yard line in thefirst quarter of a tie game at home versus Team D. The current down anddistance is first-and-ten. Based on this situation—i.e., game state—andfrom, for example, equation [2] above: Team W is expected to score 2.2points on its current drive; Team D is expected to score 1.5 points onits next drive; and Team W is expected to score 1.6 points on its nextdrive.

On Team W's next play, its quarterback throws a pass to its halfback fora seven yard gain, bringing up second-and-three from its own 47 yardline. Based on this new game state: Team W is now expected to score 2.6points on its current drive; Team D is expected to score 1.3 points onits next drive; and Team W is expected to score 1.7 points on its nextdrive.

The value of the just completed play—i.e., the seven yard reception—isthe sum of the difference of the scoring expectations before and afterthe play for Team W's current drive, Team D's next drive, and Team W'snext drive. In this example, the value of the play is +0.70 points((2.6−2.2)+(1.5−1.3)+(1.7−1.6)). Of note is that the reduction in thescoring expectations of the opposing team, Team D, is consideredfavorable to the current offensive team, Team W.

Baseball Play Valuation Example

During a game between Team A and Team B being played in Team A'sballpark, Player JD of Team A comes up to bat in the third inningagainst Player MM. Player BM of Team A is on first base and there is oneout in the inning. Based on this game state and from, for example,equation [1] above, the NES for this game state is 0.54 runs.

During the at bat, Player JD hits a hard line drive just off the rightfield line resulting in a double. Player BM, who was on first baseactually scores, and Player JD ends up on second base. As a result ofthe double by Player JD, the current game state is a man on second basewith one out and one run scored. The NES for this game state is 1.64runs (NES of 0.64 for the game state of a man on second base with oneout +1 run scored). The value of the play is 1.1 runs (1.64 runs-0.54runs).

Distribution of Performance Points to Athletes Based on the Value of aPlay

FIG. 6 is a flow diagram illustrating the processing of the sport serverof the valuation system to distribute the value of a play amongst theathletes involved in the play, according to some embodiments. In block602, the sport server receives from the feed server the XML playmessage. In block 604, the sport server parses the XML play message todetermine the play, current play's game state, prior play's game state,and calculates a value of the play. In some embodiments, the processingof the sport server in blocks 602 and 604 is similar to the processingof the sport server in blocks 502 to 512 of FIG. 5.

In block 606, the sport server identifies the athletes who were involvedin the play. The athletes may be identified in the XML play message. Inblock 608, the sport server distributes the value of the play calculatedin block 604 amongst the identified athletes who were involved in theplay as, for example, performance points or dividends generated by eachshare of a financial instrument in each identified athlete. In someembodiments, the value is distributed amongst the athletes according torelevant percentages as determined from an analysis of past events inthe event pool using, for example, well known empirical and regressiontechniques.

For example, for baseball, for a play involving a pitcher and a batter(e.g., strikeout, base on balls, or a home run), the empirical analysisof the past events may indicate that the pitcher is to be credited with38% of the value of the play, and the batter is to be credited with 62%of the value of the play. Assuming the value of the play is 1.00 (e.g.,a home run), the batter is credited with 0.62 performance points (a gainof 0.62 performance points) and the pitcher is debited 0.38 performancepoints (a reduction of 0.38 performance points). In the prior footballexample where the pass play from the quarterback to the halfbackresulted in a value of +0.70 points, the empirical analysis of the pastevents may indicate that the quarterback and the halfback are each to becredited with 50% of the value of the play. Here, the quarterback andhalfback are each credited with 0.35 performance points. One skilled inthe art will appreciate that distribution percentages for other sports,other types of plays, and/or other athletes may be obtained in a similarmanner by analyzing the events in the event pool for the particularsport.

FIG. 7 is a flow diagram illustrating the processing of the sport serverof the valuation system to distribute the value of a play amongst theathletes involved in the intermediate states of the play, according tosome embodiments. In block 702, the sport server receives from the feedserver the XML play message. In block 704, the sport server parses theXML play message to determine the play, the previous play's game state,the current play's game state, and performance events for each athleteinvolved in the play. The performance events may vary depending on thesport. For example, for baseball, the performance events may includepitching, hitting, fielding, base running, etc. For football, theperformance events may include passing, receiving, rushing, tackling,etc.

In block 706, the sport server determines the intermediate states thatrepresent the flow of the play. The intermediate states may divide theplay into steps or stages that isolate the individual contributions ofthe athletes involved in the play. For example, for baseball, if theplay is a batted ball, the intermediate states may be: (1) the estimatedresult of the batted ball; (2) the actual result of the batted ball; (3)the estimated base running result due to the batted ball; and (4) thefinal result of the batted ball, including the actual base running thatoccurred.

In block 708, the sport server calculates the value of each intermediatestate determined in block 706. In a manner similar to calculating avalue of an entire play, a value of an intermediate state may becalculated from the NES of the prior intermediate state and the NES ofthe current intermediate state. In the case where an intermediate stateinvolves an expected result, the NES of the intermediate state may becalculated using relative probabilities of the possible or expectedoutcomes or results of the intermediate state. In some embodiments, therelative probabilities of the possible results may be calculatedempirically from an analysis of the past events in the event pool.

For example, for baseball, the hit characteristics of a batted ball mayinclude power, direction, type, and distance, as follows:

-   -   Power: Soft, Medium, Hard    -   Direction: Field divided into seven zones or slices originating        outward from home plate    -   Type: Line Drive, Grounder, Pop Up, Fly Ball, Bunt, etc.    -   Distance: Distance from home plate in feet

A probabilistic model that calculates expected at bat and base runningoutcomes based on the batted ball hit characteristics may be createdfrom an analysis of the events in the event pool. Table 2 belowillustrates an example batted ball probabilistic model for line driveslanding between 200-250 feet.

TABLE 2 Zones 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Out  2% 18% 11% 14%  7% 22%  5% 1B 29% 75%76% 84% 80% 74% 33% 2B 69%  6% 12%  2% 11%  4% 56% 3B  0%  0%  1%  0% 3%  0%  6%

Batted ball probabilistic models that calculate the expected outcomesfor the other combinations of the characteristics of the batted ball maysimilarly be created from an analysis of the events in the event pool.

Table 3 below illustrates an example base runner advancementprobabilistic model illustrating the probability of scoring from thirdbase on a fly ball of a particular distance.

TABLE 3 Distance (feet) Zone <150 150-200 200-250 250-300 300-350 >350 10% 13% 69% 98% 100% 100% 2 0% 20% 69% 98% 100% 100% 3 0% 15% 67% 98%100% 100% 4 0% 16% 69% 96% 100%  98% 5 8% 23% 72% 98% 100% 100% 6 0% 12%57% 94% 100% 100% 7 0% 23% 71% 94% 100% 100%

Base runner advancement probabilistic models that calculate the expectedbase runner advancement outcomes for the other combinations of thecharacteristics of the batted ball and base runner positions maysimilarly be created from an analysis of the events in the event pool.In some embodiments, batted ball probabilistic models and the baserunner advancement probabilistic models may be generated for each of thedifferent base ball stadiums or parks.

In block 710, the sport server identifies the athletes who were involvedin each of the intermediate states of the play, and distributes thevalue of each intermediate state amongst the athletes involved in theintermediate state as, for example, performance points or dividendsgenerated by each share of a financial instrument in each identifiedathlete.

One skilled in the art will appreciate that probabilistic models similarto those illustrated above for baseball may be similarly created for thevarious other sports such as football, basketball, hockey, golf, autoracing, etc. For example, in golf, one probabilistic model may indicatethe probabilities of obtaining various scores on a particular par 4 holeafter hitting a second shot into a green-side bunker. In auto racing,one probabilistic model may indicate the probabilities of obtainingvarious finish positions for various states in the race (e.g., driver iscurrently in third position, 5 seconds behind the second position carand 12 seconds behind the first position car on lap 100 of a 200 laprace, etc.).

FIG. 8 is a flow diagram illustrating an example NES calculation anddistribution amongst the athletes involved in the intermediate states ofa baseball play. In particular, the intermediate states break down thebaseball play into four states which isolate hitting, pitching, baserunning, and defensive contributions of the athletes involved in theplay. The number of states and the types of contributions are providedonly as examples, and one skilled in the art will appreciate that a playmay be broken down into a different number of states, including a singlestate, and the types of contributions may vary, for example, dependingon the play and the sport.

In block 802, the sport server calculates a NES—i.e., a NES0— at thebeginning of the at bat based on the relevant inputs (i.e., the gamestate before the play occurs) into the NES equation [1]. In block 804,using the batted ball characteristics, the sport server determines anexpectation for the at bat based on an expected new NES—i.e., NES1. Forexample, the sport server determines from the tables the relativeprobabilities of a single, double, triple, or out occurring based onfactors, such as hit distance, hit type, hit power, hit angle, etc.These probabilities are calculated empirically from observed data over apredetermined number of seasons. The sport server uses theseprobabilities to calculate an expected new NES (NES1) based on a hit ofthis type. At this stage, the sport server does not consider whatactually happened on the play, but rather merely calculates an expectednew NES based on a batted ball of this type. The sport server subtractsNES0 from NES1 to determine a change in NES caused by this hit. Thesport server may divide this change in NES between the pitcher andhitter—i.e., the athletes involved in this intermediate state of theplay—according to relevant percentages as determined from the analysisof past events.

In block 806, the sport server calculates a NES change based on theactual result of the at bat, absent of additional base advancement. Forexample, based on the outcome of the batted ball (i.e. single, double,triple or out) the sport server calculates a new NES—i.e., NES2. ThisNES change (i.e., NES2−NES1) does not take into account the actual newgame state, but rather only the game state that would have been directlyimpacted by the result of the batted ball. For example, if a man is onfirst base and the batter hits a single, only the NES change associatedwith the player advancing to second base is captured in this calculationregardless of whether the runner actually advanced to second base. Thesport server divides this change in NES between the fielder(s) involvedand the hitter, in the hitter's role as a base runner, according torelevant percentages as determined from the analysis of past events.Depending on the type of play (e.g., base on balls, strike out, homerun), this calculation may not be necessary.

In block 808, the sport server determines the expectation for baserunner advancement based on the location of the batted ball. The sportserver determines an expected base running outcome based on the outcomeof the batted ball and the context of the game situation. For example,based on the hit characteristics and the result of the hit (e.g., asingle to right, fly out to left, etc), the sport server calculatesprobabilities of advancement and an expected new NES—i.e., NES3. Thesport server subtracts NES2 (calculated in block 806 above) from NES3 todetermine a change in NES, and may divide this change in NES between thepitcher and hitter as a characteristic of the hit, for example,according to relevant percentages as determined from the analysis ofpast events.

In block 808, the sport server determines a final NES based on theactual result of the play. The sport server subtracts NES3 from thefinal NES to determine a change in NES, and may divide this change inNES between the hitter and the fielders involved in the play, forexample, according to relevant percentages as determined from theanalysis of past events.

By way of an example to illustrate the NES calculation and distributionexample of FIG. 8, Player JD comes up to bat in the third inning of agame against the New York Yankees in Fenway Park. Player BM is on firstbase and there is one out. Using these factors, the NES value is 0.54runs in this situation (NES0, block 802).

Assuming Player JD strikes out on the eighth pitch of the at bat, noadvancement by Player BM is anticipated. A NES2 value of 0.29 runs iscalculated based on there being two outs and a runner on first base. Thechange in NES is actually 0.25 runs (i.e., the difference between NES0and NES1) and this amount of performance points may be split with, forexample, 38% or 0.095 performance points being added to the pitcher, and62% or 0.195 performance points being subtracted from Player JD. Thepercentage allocation is an example, and may be determined from ananalysis of the historical data.

Assuming Player JD hits a hard line drive just off the right field lineand the ball lands less than 150 feet from the infield, the data in theprobabilistic tables may indicate that a hit ball of this type has: a65% chance of being an out; a 12% chance of being a single; a 20% chanceof being a double; and a 3% chance of being a triple. Using theseprobabilities, the expected new NES is calculated based on a 65% chanceof there being a man on first base with two outs (e.g., expected new NESfor this probable outcome=0.20), a 12% chance of men on first and secondbase with one out (0.10), a 20% chance of men on second and third basewith one out (0.21), and a 3% chance of one run scored and a man onthird base (0.06). Summing up all these probable percentages produces anew NES1 of 0.57 runs (NES1, block 804). The change in NES caused bythis batted ball is then 0.57-0.54 or 0.03 runs. This amount ofperformance points may then be split between the pitcher and Player JD,with Player JD receiving positive performance points and the pitcherreceiving negative performance points.

Continuing the example, Player JD's line drive may actually result in adouble down the line. Based on a two base hit, the new NES2 is expectedto be men on second and third base with one out, which is 1.07 runs(NES2, block 806). The difference between NES2 and NES1 is 1.07−0.57 or0.5 runs. This amount of performance points may then be split betweenthe fielder's in the play (e.g., the first baseman who had a chance tofield the play and the right fielder who could have held Player JD to asingle) and Player JD.

Continuing the example, based on a double hit to that area of the field,it may be determined that on average the base runner advances to thirdbase 80% of the time (0.86) and scores 18% of the time (0.31) and isthrown out 2% of the time (0.01). The estimated NES3 caused by theexpected base running advancement is 1.18 runs (NES3, block 808). Thedifference between NES3 and NES2 is 1.18−1.07 or 0.11 runs, and thisamount of performance points may be split between Player JD and thepitcher.

Continuing the example, on the play, Player BM may actually score andPlayer JD may end up at second base. The final NES associated with a runin and a man on second base with one out is 1.64 runs (final NES, block810). The difference between the final NES and NES3 is 1.64−1.18 or 0.46runs, and this amount of performance points may be split between thebase runner (i.e., Player JD) and the fielders involved with the play.

One skilled in the art will appreciate that similar NES calculations anddistributions can be made amongst the athletes involved in theintermediate states of a play for other sports such as football,basketball, hockey, soccer, etc. For example, the intermediate statesfor football may break down a football play into states which isolatepassing and pass defended, running and run defended, etc.

Market Value for Shares of Financial Instruments in Real-Life Athletes

FIG. 9 is a block diagram illustrating the derivation of a market valuefor a share of a financial instrument in an athlete, according to someembodiments. As depicted, a market maker 902 adjusts a market value 904of each share of a financial instrument in a real-life athlete inresponse to buy orders 906 and sell orders 908 submitted by users of thevaluation system, such as the participants of fantasy sports challenges.In some embodiments, the market exchange server component of thevaluation system functions as the market maker by buying shares offinancial instruments from users wanting to sell the shares of financialinstruments, and selling shares of financial instruments to userswanting to purchase the shares of financial instruments. The marketmaker relies on the trade balance between buying and selling to adjustthe price of the shares of the financial instruments.

In some embodiments, the market maker adjusts the market value of ashare of a financial instrument in response to the buy orders and thesell orders as they arrive. In order to gauge the demand for a share ofa financial instrument, the market maker relies on the trade balance,which represents the ratio of the total value of buy orders to the totalvalue of sell orders over a period of time, and may be calculated as:

$\begin{matrix}{{TradeBalance} = \frac{\sum\limits_{t = T}^{T - 1}{p_{t}*{SharesBought}}}{\sum\limits_{t = T}^{T - 1}{p_{t}*{SharesSold}}}} & \lbrack 4\rbrack\end{matrix}$

In equation [4] above, p_(t) is the market value at time t, l is thenumber of periods over which the trade balance is calculated, and T isthe current period.

In some embodiments, the market maker attempts to keep the trade balanceas close to one (1) as possible by adjusting the market value inresponse to changes in the trade balance. For example, if the tradebalance is below one (i.e., the value of the sell orders is higher thanthe value of the buy orders over a set period of time) then the marketmaker reduces the market value, in order to attract more buy orders.

In some embodiments, the market maker adjusts the market value byfollowing log normal distributions which approximate stock returns. Inorder to incorporate the log normal distribution into the stockadjustment process, the market maker may incorporate Brownian motioninto the adjustment process. Brownian motion implies that at any givenpoint, a stock price may move up or down according to:

$\begin{matrix}{p_{({t + 1})} = \left\{ \begin{matrix}{p_{t}u} & {{if}\mspace{14mu}{price}\mspace{14mu}{goes}\mspace{14mu}{up}} \\{p_{t}d} & {{if}\mspace{14mu}{price}\mspace{14mu}{goes}\mspace{14mu}{down}}\end{matrix} \right.} & \lbrack 5\rbrack\end{matrix}$In which:u=½(e ^(−(μ*dt)) +e ^((μ+σ) ₂ ^()dt))+{[½(e ^(−(μ*dt)) +e ^((μ+σ) ₂^()dt))]²−1}^(1/2)and:d=1/u

In the equations above, μ is the riskfree rate of return, dt is thelength of time between transactions, and σ is the volatility of thestock.

In some embodiments, the market maker may modify the standard Brownianmotion to better capture to magnitude of the difference between the buyand sell orders. For example, the Brownian motion may be modified bymultiplying the gross upward price adjustment by the square root of thetrade balance ratio, and multiplying the gross downward price adjustmentby the reciprocal of the trade balance ratio as depicted in equation [8]below:

$\begin{matrix}{p_{({t + 1})} = \left\{ \begin{matrix}{p_{t} + {\left( {{p_{t}u} - p_{t}} \right)\sqrt{TradeBalance}}} & {{if}\mspace{14mu}{price}\mspace{14mu}{goes}\mspace{14mu}{up}} \\{p_{t} + {\left( {{p_{t}d} - p_{t}} \right){1/\sqrt{TradeBalance}}}} & {{if}\mspace{14mu}{price}\mspace{14mu}{goes}\mspace{14mu}{down}}\end{matrix} \right.} & \lbrack 8\rbrack\end{matrix}$

In some embodiments, the market maker establishes an IPO price for ashare of each financial instrument that is available for purchase by theusers of the valuation system, such as the participants in the fantasysports challenges or other users of the valuation system who requestvaluations for plays, athletes, and other services provided by thevaluation system. For example, for each real-life athlete supported bythe market maker, the market maker may use any of a variety ofwell-known statistical models to perform a historical analysis of thereal-life performance of the athlete. An estimate of the performancepoints the athlete will generate over a predetermined period of time maybe determined from the historical analysis of the real-life performanceof the athlete. These estimates can incorporate the projectedperformance as well as the likelihood the athlete will still be in theprofessional leagues. The market maker may then choose a discount rateused for a discounted cash flow analysis. Using the estimatedperformance over the period of time, the market maker then calculatesthe total discounted performance flow by multiplying each future cashflow by a yearly discount factor which is calculated from the discountrate.

In some embodiments, the market maker establishes a floor price for eachshare of a financial instrument. The floor price is a minimum amountthat will be charged for a share of a financial instrument. For example,the market maker may establish a floor price, such as $10.00 or 10fantasy money units. By setting a floor or minimum price, the marketmaker minimizes the phenomenon of a drastic price increase which may becaused by purchases of shares of a financial instrument that aredrastically undervalued.

Athlete Valuation

FIG. 10 is a block diagram illustrating the derivation of a value of anathlete, according to some embodiments. As depicted, an athlete's value1002 is derived from a combination of the athlete's market value 1004and the athlete's accumulated performance points 1006. At any instancein time, a value of an athlete in the valuation system is thecombination of the price of a share of the financial instrument in theathlete and the performance points generated by the athlete. Asdiscussed above, the valuation system provides a market where its usersare allowed to spend fantasy money units to purchase shares of financialinstruments. In some embodiments, the valuation system allows the valuesof the shares of financial instruments to fluctuate based on thebuy-sell pressure. The valuation system models an electronic marketmaker, which sits at the end of each transaction, adjusting the price ofthe shares of financial instruments to create a constant trade balancebetween buying and selling. For example, the valuation system mayattempt to achieve an equal trade balance (e.g., measured by sharesbought*price/shares sold*price) by adjusting price accordingly.

Athletes generate performance points based on their on-field performanceas measured by the valuation system using the play valuation techniquesand the techniques for distributing the value of the play amongst theathletes as discussed above. In some embodiments, performance points areaccrued each time an athlete has a measurable impact on the game. Ingeneral, performance points are a comparison of the athlete'sperformance in a given situation versus the baseline average in thatsituation. This methodology assigns a point value to each performance.

Win Probability

In some embodiments, the valuation system determines a probability thata player or team is going to win a particular game. The valuation systemmay then provide the win probability to various media outlets fordisplay or broadcast, for example, within the context of the game. Thevaluation system may also display or broadcast the win probabilitythrough its own broadcast source, such as its web site.

In some embodiments, the probability that a team is going to win aparticular game is dependent upon factors such as the score of the gameas well as several variables that are particular to each sport. Forexample, in football, the probability that a team is going to win may bedependent upon variables such as, the points they have scored, thepoints they have allowed, whether they have possession of the ball, timeremaining, down and distance, etc. These game state variables areparticular to each sport, but the style of analysis to determine the winprobability for sports other than football is similar. Some of the gamestate variables are related to the skill of the teams on the field(e.g., yards allowed) and some are not (e.g., score and time remaining).The win probability can be calculated on a team specific or teamindependent basis.

Prior to any game, the odds that one team is going to win is rarelyeven. The actually probability of winning may be estimated based uponknown variables such as the winning percentage for each team prior tothe game, which team is at home, which team has scored more points inthe season, which team has allowed more points, etc. These variables maybe thought of as season state variables. These calculations areperformed on a team specific basis, as the team independent winprobability, prior to the start of a game, is equal for all teams ortournament participants.

The same type of analysis may be used to calculate the probability thata team is going to win a series of games. For example, in baseball, theWorld Series is a best of seven series. Each strikeout and each homerunaffect not only the probability that a team will win a given game, butalso the probability that they will win the entire series.

In some embodiments, the statistical analysis may be performed usingbinary regression techniques in which a win is coded as a “1” and a lossis coded as a “0.” The independent variables are the game and seasonstate variables. For team independent analysis, only the non teamspecific independent variables may be used. Play by play data for thegame state variables may create a large data set for the in gameestimates. Sports with longer seasons may allow for larger data sets forthe pre game estimates, but using data from previous seasons andadjusting for offseason changes allows for pre game estimates in sportssuch as football that have a short season and, thus, more volatileestimates of the season state variables.

For example, for football, game state variables may include score,quarter, time remaining, team with possession, down, distance to go,passing yards, rushing yards, and valuation system statistics. Of these,passing yards, rushing yards and valuation system statistics are teamspecific variables. Season variables may include winning percentage,rushing yards, passing yards, valuation system statistics, coachingvariables (e.g., years coached, lifetime win percentage, etc.),injuries, and home team. During playoff time, the analysis may beextended to include the probability that the team is going to win thechampionship (e.g., Super Bowl) based on their probability of winningthe playoff game and the potential opponents. This analysis may includea mix of game and season state variables.

For example, for baseball, the game state variables may include score,team at bat, runners on base, lineup position, inning, pitch count,pitcher (e.g., specific pitcher, starter vs. reliever, etc.), home team,league, and valuation system statistics. The season variables mayinclude winning percentage, valuation system statistics, injuries,expected starting pitchers, and home team. In the playoffs, acombination of game state and season state variables may be used tocalculate the probability a team is going to win the current seriesand/or the World Series.

For example, for basketball, the game state variables may include score,quarter, time remaining, fouls, and valuation system statistics. Theseason variables may include winning percentage, home team, injuries,coaching variables, consecutive games, and road trip. In the playoffs, acombination of game state and season state variables may be used tocalculate the probability a team is going to win the current seriesand/or the championship (e.g., NBA Championship).

For example, for golf, the tournament state variables may include score,strokes behind, number of golfers ahead, hole, par on current hole, dayof the tournament, and golfers remaining to play. The pre-tournamentstate variables may include total winnings, winning of the rest of thefield, yardage of the course, and average score. In match playtournaments, tournament and pre-tournament variables may be used toestimate the probability of winning the entire tournament.

For example, for tennis, the match state variables may include gamescore, set score, serve, faults, and serve velocity. The pre-match statevariables may include ranking, opponent's ranking, major tournament, andhead-to-head matchup history. Match state and pre-match state variables,along with related data on potential opponents, may be used to calculatethe probability of winning the entire tournament.

Fantasy Sports Challenge

An illustrative example of a fantasy sports challenge in accordance withthe techniques described herein is now described. In some embodiments,the fantasy game server component of the valuation system hosts thefantasy sports challenges. A user interested in creating and/orparticipating in a fantasy sports challenge may execute a browserprogram on the user's client system, and visit a fantasy sportschallenge web site provided by the web server component of the valuationsystem by, for example, entering a URL for the web site. In response, ifthe user is not a registered user, the web site may present aregistration web page with which the user can register with thevaluation system. If the user is a registered user, the web site maypresent a home page of the fantasy game server through which the usercan access various features of the valuation system, including thefantasy sports challenges.

In some embodiments, the home page may display a list or menu of linkswhich provide access to the various features of the valuation system.For example, one of the provided links may present a web page throughwhich a registered user can act as a challenge creator and create acustom fantasy sports challenge. Other links may present web pages that:display a list of links associated with hosted fantasy sportschallenges; allow a registered user to join a fantasy sports challenge;allow a participant of a fantasy sports challenge to buy and/or sellshares of financial instruments; allow a participant of a fantasy sportschallenge to check the status of his or her portfolio; allow aregistered user to search for athletes based on one or moreuser-specified criteria; allow a registered user to search for financialinstruments based on one or more user-specified criteria; allow aregistered user to track athlete values; allow a registered user tocompare athlete values; allow a registered user to view a list offantasy sports challenges the user is participating in; allow aregistered user to search the hosted fantasy sports challenges based onone or more user-specified criteria; allow a registered user to trackone or more games and the values of the plays as they occur in the gamesin real-time; and perform other actions provided by the valuationsystem.

In some embodiments, the fantasy game server may impose a minimum ordefault set of rules for all fantasy sports challenges that are hostedby the fantasy game server. These default set of rules may specify thecriteria, such as, by way of example, joining a challenge, entry fee,starting balance, required holdings in a participant's portfolio,athlete restrictions; portfolio allocation, challenge start time, buyingand selling shares of financial instruments, challenge end time,judging, etc., used to conduct the fantasy sports challenge.

For example, the rules for joining a challenge may require all fantasysports challenges to have a minimum number of participants or traders,such as, by way of example, two (2), three (3), etc. A challenge thatdoes not obtain the minimum number of participants will be cancelled,and the entrants will be refunded their entry fees. The challengecreator may be assessed a fee for custom challenges that do not drawenough interest to meet customized requirements for the minimum numberof participants.

The fantasy game server may or may not require a payment of an entry feeto participate in a fantasy sports challenge. For example, a challengecreator for a custom fantasy sports challenge, or a fantasy sportschallenge administrator for fantasy sports challenges sponsored by thefantasy game server, may specify an entry fee in order to participate ina challenge. In some embodiments, the fantasy game server may charge aservice fee for hosting a custom fantasy sports challenge.

The starting balance is an amount of fantasy money units with which eachparticipant in a challenge starts. For challenges that require a paymentof an entry fee, the fantasy game server may convert the entry fee or aportion of the entry fee into fantasy money units for each participant.Each participant in a particular fantasy sports challenge may receivethe same amount of fantasy money units to buy and sell financialinstruments, or they may receive different amounts of fantasy moneyunits to acquire and divest financial instruments depending upon anumber of factors. Such factors may include the amount of money that theparticipant paid as an entry fee to enter the fantasy sports challenge,the position of the participant with respect to which participantentered the fantasy sports challenge first, second, and etc., or arandom assignment of value.

The required holding in a participant's portfolio may specify a minimumnumber of different athletes that are required in each portfolio at anyinstance in time during the course of a challenge. The required holdingsmay also specify a maximum number of different athletes that may becontained in a portfolio at one time. For example, the fantasy gameserver may require all portfolios to maintain a minimum of 3 differentathletes, and a maximum of 15 different athletes at any instance timeduring the course of the challenge.

Athlete restrictions specify the types of athletes that may be purchasedand held in a portfolio. For example, a fantasy sports challenge mayrequire participants to only have shares of financial instruments inpitchers and catchers, or other positions and combinations of positions,in their portfolios. An athlete's position is the position designationas indicated by the statistics and/or game feed providers. In anotherexample, a fantasy sports challenge may require participants to purchaseshares of financial instruments in a specified list of athletes. Instill another example, a fantasy sports challenge may requireparticipants to have shares of financial instruments in athletes fromtwo or more different sports. The athlete restrictions may specify acombination of one or more of the following: one or more athletepositions depending on the particular sport, including positions fromdifferent sports; one or more athletes from a list of athletes; a numberor minimum number of sports to be included in a portfolio; a maximumnumber of sports to be included in a portfolio; league or leagues;division or divisions; conference or conferences; alma mater;affiliation with a particular sponsor or sponsors; etc.

Portfolio allocation specifies a minimum percentage of a portfolio thatmay be allocated to each athlete (or a financial instrument comprisingthe athlete) and a maximum percentage of the portfolio that may beallocated to any one athlete (or a financial instrument comprising anyone athlete). For example, challenge participants may be required toallocate at least 5% of their fantasy money budget for shares offinancial instruments in each athlete contained in their portfolios, anda maximum allocation of 90% of their fantasy money budget for shares offinancial instruments in any one athlete contained in their portfolios.In some embodiments, challenge participants are not actually purchasingshares of their financial instruments when they initially set or specifytheir allocations. By initially setting their allocations, for example,prior to the start of a challenge, they are setting aside a percentageof their starting balance of fantasy money units to purchase the sharesof financial instruments in the athlete or athletes at the market valueas of the start time of the challenge. During the course of thechallenge, buying and selling shares of financial instruments isprocessed as soon as practicable after the order is submitted andreceived.

Challenge start time specifies a start time for a fantasy sportschallenge. The fantasy game server executes the pending purchase ordersas specified by all of the challenge participants' initial portfolioallocation when the challenge starts. In some embodiments, the fantasygame server does not execute the buy orders for shares of financialinstruments in any particular order. Because the market for the purchaseand sale of shares of financial instruments is always moving, purchaseprices may not exactly match for each participant in a challenge. Insome embodiments, if price changes for a share of a financial instrumentare so dramatic that a specified allocation of a portfolio cannotpurchase any shares of the financial instrument, the fantasy game servermay notify the participant that specified the portfolio allocation. Insome embodiments, a minimum unit of purchase may be set to at least onewhole share of a financial instrument.

Buying and selling shares of financial instruments specify theprocedures for buying/selling shares. In some embodiments, the fantasygame server provides a web page through which participants in achallenge can submit buy and sell orders for shares of financialinstruments. For example, to submit a buy order for shares of afinancial instrument, a participant in a challenge may be required toindicate or specify the challenge, the desired athlete, the maximumpurchase price, the number of shares, etc., on the web page. The fantasygame server may then execute the trade—i.e., buy order. In someembodiments, if a current price of a share of the specified financialinstrument is below the specified maximum purchase price, the fantasygame server executes the trade at the lower price. To submit a sellorder for shares of a financial instrument, the participant may berequired to indicate or specify the challenge, the desired athlete, theminimum sell price, the number of shares, etc., on the web page. Thefantasy game server may then execute the trade—i.e., sell order. In someembodiments, if a current price of a share of the specified financialinstrument is above the specified minimum sell price, the fantasy gameserver executes the trade at the higher price. Upon executing the trade,the fantasy game server provides information such as the executionprice, the number of shares purchased/sold, and the new price for ashare of the financial instrument.

In some embodiments, the participant may submit an order to purchase orsell shares of a financial instrument at the current market value byspecifying the athlete and a percentage of the participant's portfolio.For example, for a buy order, the specified percentage of the portfoliomay be converted to fantasy money units, which is then used to buyshares of the specified financial instrument. In a similar manner, theparticipant may also sell shares of a financial instrument currently inthe portfolio. Because the market values of shares of financialinstruments may be moving, there is no guarantee that a set number ofshares will be obtained. In some embodiments, when a participantconducts trades by adjusting the percentage of shares of more than onefinancial instrument in the portfolio, the fantasy game server executesthe sells before executing the buys to free up fantasy money units touse for the additional purchases—i.e., the buy orders.

Challenge end time indicates an end time for the fantasy sportschallenge. The fantasy game server does not permit trades to beconducted after the challenge end time. Price fluctuations after achallenge end time do not affect the value of the portfolios that areparticipating in the challenge.

Judging specifies the criteria used to determine a winner of a fantasysports challenge. In some embodiments, the fantasy game serverdetermines a winner of a challenge by ranking the participants in thechallenge according to the returns generated by their portfolios. Thereturn is calculated as the net increase in the value of the portfolio(i.e., the difference of the market value of the shares of financialinstruments contained in the portfolio and any “unspent” fantasy moneyunits at the end of the challenge compared to the initial allocation offantasy money units at the beginning of the challenge), and the totaldividends (i.e., performance points) earned by the shares of financialinstruments while in the portfolio. The dividends include the dividendsgenerated by the shares of financial instruments that were contained inthe portfolio at any time during the course of the challenge (i.e.,shares of financial instruments that may have been bought and soldduring the course of the challenge). Therefore, net increase takes intoconsideration not only the shares of financial instruments held in theportfolio at the end of the challenge, but also the shares of financialinstruments that were held and sold during the course of the challenge.The fantasy game server distributes prizes to the participants based onthe specified rules of the challenge.

A challenge creator may specify values and/or requirements for the someor all of the aforementioned fantasy sports challenge criteria. Forexample, a challenge creator of a custom fantasy sports challenge mayspecify a different number of participants for the challenge to be avalid challenge. In some embodiments, if a criterion is not specifiedfor a fantasy sports challenge, the fantasy game server may provide adefault for the criterion. The challenge creator may also specify one ormore criteria that is different from or in addition to those listedabove, such as, a limit on the number of trades, prize or prizes for thewinner of the challenge, times when trades are not permitted, maximumnumber of shares of a financial instrument permitted in a portfolio,maximum number of shares of a financial instrument in the challenge,etc. The aforementioned criteria are provided only as examples and notas a limitation, and it will be appreciated that a fantasy sportschallenge may be conducted without one or more of the aforementionedcriteria and/or with one or more different criteria than those mentionedabove.

FIG. 11 is a flow diagram illustrating the processing of the fantasygame server in conducting a fantasy sports challenge, according to someembodiments. In block 1102, the fantasy game server creates a fantasysports challenge. For example, the fantasy sports challenge may becreated by a registered user acting as a challenge creator or may becreated by the fantasy game server, such as a fantasy gameadministrator. In block 1104, the fantasy game server publishes thefantasy sports challenge. For example, the fantasy sports challenge maybe “advertised” on a web page or multiple web pages hosted by thevaluation system or some other suitable server or web server.

In block 1106, the fantasy game server accepts entrants into the fantasysports challenge. The entrants participate in the fantasy sportschallenge. In some embodiments, the entrants are registered users of thevaluation system or the fantasy game server. In block 1108, the fantasygame server starts the fantasy sports challenge, for example, at itsdesignated start time. In block 1110, the fantasy game serverestablishes a portfolio for each participant in the fantasy sportschallenge. For example, each participant is initially allocated an equalamount of fantasy money units with which the participant can establishhis or her portfolio. In some embodiments, a participant may establishhis or her initial portfolio by purchasing shares of financialinstruments.

In some embodiments, a participant may establish his or her initialportfolio by drafting athletes into his or her initial portfolio incompetition with the other participants of each individual challenge.For example, a draft may follow a “snaking” pattern. This means that theparticipant with the first pick in the first round will pick last in thesecond round and then first again in the third round. The participantwith the last pick in the first round will pick first in the secondround and then last again in the third round. In other words, the draftorder is reversed every other round. In some embodiments, the draftorder may be drawn at random or assigned based upon the amount of theentry fee paid to join the challenge. Participants may be required topay for the shares of financial instruments that they drafted by usingtheir fantasy money units. In some embodiments, participants are notrequired to pay for the athletes that they drafted into their initialportfolio.

In some embodiments, a participant may establish his or her initialportfolio by playing a skill-based or chance-based game, the outcome ofwhich determines the athletes that comprise each participant's initialportfolio. In some embodiments, a participant's initial portfolio may beassigned at random or by a challenge sponsor, leader or commissioner ofthe challenge, etc.

The fantasy game server performs blocks 1112 and 1114 during the courseof the fantasy sports challenge, up to the time the fantasy sportschallenge ends. Stated differently, the fantasy game server conducts theoperations in blocks 1112 and 1114 for the duration of the fantasysports challenge. In bock 1112, the fantasy game server executes marketorders for the purchase and sale of shares of financial instruments. Forexample, each participant may spend all or a portion of the initiallyallocated fantasy money units to buy a share or multiple shares of afinancial instrument or financial instruments to create his or herportfolio. Subsequently, at any time during the course of the challenge,each participant can alter the contents in his or her portfolio bysubmitting orders to buy and/or sell shares of financial instruments.The fantasy game server executes these orders as market orders for thepurchase/sale of shares of financial instruments.

In block 1114, the fantasy game server distributes dividends accordingto the shares contained in the portfolios. For example, a portfoliomight contain one or more shares of a financial instrument in aparticular athlete. If a game involving the athlete occurs during thecourse of the challenge, the fantasy game server distributes anyperformance points generated by the athlete as dividends to theportfolio according to the actual number of shares of the financialinstrument in the athlete and which is contained in the portfolio at thetime the performance points were obtained. More specifically, thefantasy game server distributes the dividends to the participant thatowns the portfolio, for example, into the participant's challengeaccount. If multiple participants own a share or multiple shares of thefinancial instrument, the fantasy game server distributes the dividendsto each of the participants according to the number of shares of thefinancial instrument owned by each of the participants. In a similarmanner, the fantasy game server distributes dividends generated by theother athletes during the course of the challenge.

In block 1116, the fantasy game server ends the fantasy sportschallenge, for example, at its designated end time. For example, at thetime the challenge was created, the creator of the challenge may havespecified that the challenge is to last for a specific duration of timeor that the challenge is to end at a specified point in time. In block1118, the fantasy game server determines the winner of the fantasysports challenge. For example, the winner of the challenge may bedetermined from a comparison of the combination of the dividendsreceived by each participant during the course of the challenge and thenet increase in each participant's portfolio value (i.e., the differencebetween the ending value of the portfolio and the initial allocation offantasy money units).

Single Sport Challenge

FIG. 12 is a high-level block diagram illustrating a fantasy singlesports challenge. As depicted, a fantasy single sport challenge 1202only involves athletes from a single sport, for example, a Sport A 1204.In a fantasy single sport challenge, shares of financial instruments inathletes of a single sport are eligible to be held in the portfolios ofthe participants participating in the challenge. For example, in afantasy baseball challenge, each participant may be permitted to holdshares of financial instruments in real-life baseball players in his orher portfolio. Conversely, in a fantasy football challenge, eachparticipant may be permitted to hold shares financial instruments inreal-life football players in his or her portfolio. The designated sportis specified by the creator of the challenge. During the course of thesingle sport challenge (i.e., the challenge “season”), participants arepermitted to buy/sell shares of financial instruments in athletes in thedesignated sport. The price of the shares of financial instrumentschange due to buy-sell pressure generated as a result of the marketorders placed by the participants in the challenge. “News” regarding anathlete, such as, by way of example, “bad press” or “good press,” maydirectly impact the buy-sell pressure for shares of financialinstruments in the athlete. Additionally, the expectation of theathlete's on-field performance during a game or games may indirectlyimpact the buy-sell pressure for shares of financial instruments in theathlete. It will be appreciated that one or more real-life athletes in asport may not be available for purchase by the participants of a singlesport challenge involving the particular sport. For example, thevaluation system may not support every athlete in the particular sport.

In some embodiments, the creator of the single sport challenge mayspecify restrictions regarding the athletes that may be held by theparticipants in their portfolios. For example, the challenge creator mayindicate that a fantasy baseball challenge is to involve onlyoutfielders, infielders, catchers, pitchers, various other positions, orany combination thereof. Likewise, a fantasy football challenge mayinvolve only quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, various otherpositions, or any combination thereof. In still another example, thechallenge creator may indicate that a fantasy single sport challenge isto involve shares of financial instruments in an athlete or athletesfrom a list of one or more athletes, and specify the athletes that maybe included in the financial instruments. Participants in such achallenge are then required to only hold shares of financial instrumentsin the specified athletes in their portfolios.

Cross-Snort Challenge

FIG. 13 is a high-level block diagram illustrating a cross-sport fantasysports challenge. As depicted, a fantasy cross-sport challenge 1302involves athletes from a plurality of sports, such as Sport A 1304,Sport B 1306, and Sport G 1308. The number of sports depicted is forillustration only and not intended to suggest any limitation as to thenumber of sports that may be involved in the fantasy cross-sportchallenge. As such, one skilled in the art will appreciate that thefantasy cross-sport challenge may involve athletes from two or moredifferent sports.

In a fantasy cross-sport challenge, shares of financial instruments inathletes of the specified sports are eligible to be held in theportfolios of the participants participating in the challenge. Forexample, in a fantasy baseball-football challenge, each participant maybe permitted to hold shares of financial instruments in real-lifebaseball players or football players in his or her portfolio.Conversely, in a fantasy basketball-soccer challenge, each participantmay be permitted to hold shares of financial instruments in real-lifebasketball players or soccer players in his or her portfolio. During thecourse of the cross-sport challenge season, participants are permittedto buy/sell shares of financial instruments in athletes in thedesignated sports.

In a cross-sport challenge, one or more sports in the cross-sportchallenge may be in an “off-season.” During a sport's off-season, thereare no games occurring in that sport. Accordingly, athletes in thesesports are not participating in any games during the off-season and,thus, not generating any dividends. Thus, for any sport, during theoff-season, the price of the shares of financial instruments in athletesin that sport changes due to buy-sell pressure that may result from newsregarding the athletes. At issue may be the potential impact of suchnews on an athlete's ability to earn dividends the next season. Forexample, news that an athlete suffered a career-threatening injury maycause the participants in the challenge to sell the shares of financialinstruments in the athlete. Conversely, news that an athlete has won acompetition for a starting position on the athlete's team may causeparticipants in the challenge to buy shares of financial instruments inthe athlete. This buying and selling, managed by the market makermechanism, causes the fluctuation in the price of the shares offinancial instruments during the off-season.

In some embodiments, the creator of the cross-sport challenge mayspecify restrictions regarding the athletes that may be held by theparticipants in their portfolios. For example, the challenge creator mayindicate that a fantasy baseball-football challenge is to involve onlybaseball pitchers and outfielders and football quarterbacks and runningbacks. Participants in such a challenge are then required to only holdshares of financial instruments in the specified athletes in theirportfolios.

Graphical User Interface (GUI)

FIG. 14 is a display diagram showing a sample GUI through which a usercan search for athletes in the valuation system. As depicted, GUI 1402shows sport selection boxes 1404, athlete position selection boxes 1406,a drop down menu 1408 and its associated slider 1410, a drop down menu1412 and its associated slider 1414, and a display area 1416. Only twosets of drop down menus and sliders are shown in FIG. 14 for simplicity,and one skilled in the art will appreciate that there may be a differentnumber of sets of drop down menus and sliders, which are accessible onthe GUI by using, for example, positional arrows 1418.

The sport selection boxes allow a user to select a desired sport withinwhich to perform the search of athletes. The athlete position selectionboxes allow the user to select zero, one or more positions to searchwithin. In some embodiments, the positions displayed by the athleteposition selection boxes are dependent on the sport selected by the userusing the sport selection boxes.

The drop down menus allow the user to select search criteria to use insearching the valuation system for athletes that meet the specifiedsearch criteria. For example, clicking on a drop down menu may display alist of searchable criteria such as, by way of example, athletestatistics based on the athlete's sport (e.g., home runs, runs battedin, bases on balls, strike outs, touchdowns, first downs, yards rushing,yards receiving, yards passing, fumbles lost, interceptions thrown,points scored, free throw percentage, field goal percentage, etc.), andmarket statistics (e.g., price for a share of a financial instrument,dividends generated, etc.). In some embodiments, the searchable criteriadisplayed in the drop down menu may depend on the sport selected by theuser using the sport selection boxes. The displayed searchable criteriamay also depend on the athlete positions selected by the user using theathlete position selection boxes. For example, assuming that the userspecified baseball using the sport selection boxes and selected pitcherusing the athlete position selection boxes, the drop down menus maydisplay a list of statistics for baseball pitchers and a list of marketcriteria.

Each slider displays a range of values for the criteria selected in itscorresponding drop down menu. The value at one end of the range isindicated at one end of the slider (e.g., as represented by thecharacter “x” below each slider in FIG. 14) and the value at the otherend of the range is indicated at the opposite end of the slider (e.g.,as represented by the character “y” below each slider in FIG. 14). Therange of values represented by each slider dynamically changes dependingon the criteria selected in its corresponding drop down menu. Eachslider allows the user to specify a range of values to use in searchingthe valuation system for athletes that meet the specified range ofvalues for the particular criteria. For example, the user may slide aleft indicator 1420 in the slider to specify a low value for the range,and slide a right indicator 1422 in the slider to specify a high valuefor the range. The values displayed below the slider (e.g., asrepresented by the character “x” and “y”) may change depending on theposition of the left and right indicators in the slider. Using the setsof drop down menus and sliders, the user may specify one or more searchcriteria. If the user needs to specify more than, for example, twosearch criteria, the user can use the positional arrows to display andaccess the sets of drop down menus and sliders as desired.

Once the desired search criteria are specified, the user can request thesearch by clicking on a search button 1424. In response, the valuationsystem performs a search of the athletes that meet the union of thesearch criteria specified by the user, and display the athletes in thedisplay area. The user can then view the list of athletes that meet thespecified search criteria.

In some embodiments, the valuation system or a component of thevaluation system, such as the fantasy game server, may provide a GUIsimilar to GUI 1402 to allow a user to search for financial instruments.For example, the GUI may provide a drop down menu or menus andassociated slides with which the user can select/specify financialinstrument search criteria and values for the selected search criteria.

FIG. 15 is a display diagram showing a sample GUI through which aparticipant in a fantasy sports challenge can purchase shares offinancial instruments. As depicted, GUI 1502 shows a challenge selectionarea 1504, an athlete selection area 1506, and an athlete purchase area1508. In some embodiments, the challenge selection area displays to auser a list of fantasy sports challenges the user is participating in,and allows the user to select a fantasy sports challenge from the listof fantasy sports challenges. The athlete selection area displays a listof athletes that may be purchased by the user and held as shares in theuser's portfolio. In some embodiments, the athletes listed in theathlete selection area depend on the fantasy sports challenge selectedby the user in the challenge selection area.

In some embodiments, the athlete selection area may display zero, one ormore athletes in the user's “hot list” of athletes. For example, and asdepicted in FIG. 15, the user may specify one or more searchablecriteria using the sets of drop down menus and sliders to display a listof athletes that meet the specified athlete search criteria in theuser's hot list, or other suitable area of the GUI. The user may thenselect one or more of the displayed list of athletes that meet thespecified search criteria for purchase.

The user can then select one or more athletes from the athlete selectionarea by, for example, clicking on the desired athlete orcontrol-clicking on the desired athletes, and “dragging” the selectedathletes to the athlete purchase area. For each athlete dragged to theathlete purchase area, the user can specify the number of shares of theathlete to purchase in a shares box 1510. Once the desired athletes areselected and dragged to the athlete purchase area, and the number ofshares to purchase for each athlete is specified, the user can submit abuy order to purchase the specified shares of the athletes by clickingon a submit market order button (not shown). In response, the marketexchange server component of the valuation system executes the marketorder. Thus, the GUI allows participants in a fantasy sports challengeto easily select athletes for purchase by clicking and dragging thedesired athletes from one column to another column in the display.

In some embodiments, the valuation system or a component of thevaluation system, such as the fantasy game server, may provide a GUIsimilar to GUI 1502 to allow a user to purchase shares of financialinstruments in athletes. For example, the GUI may allow a user to selectone or more financial instruments in athletes from a financialinstrument selection area and place the selected financial instrumentsin a financial instrument purchase area. Once the desired financialinstruments are selected and placed in the financial instrument purchasearea, the user can specify the number of shares of the financialinstrument or instruments to purchase and submit a buy order to purchasethe specified shares of the financial instruments.

From the foregoing, it will be appreciated that embodiments of theinvention have been described herein for purposes of illustration, butthat various modifications may be made without deviating from the spiritand scope of the invention. Accordingly, the invention is not limitedexcept in accordance with elements explicitly recited in the appendedclaims.

1. A method comprising: identifying, by a computing system, a currentplay occurring during an athletic competition: determining, by thecomputing system, a current game state for the current play, the currentgame state determined from a plurality of factors that describe theathletic competition after occurrence of the current play; determining,by the computing system, a previous game state for a prior play, theprior play occurring just prior to the current play, the previous gamestate determined from a plurality of factors that describe the athleticcompetition after the occurrence of the prior play; determining, by thecomputing system, a current expectation of scoring for the current gamestate; determining, by the computing system, a previous expectation ofscoring for the previous game state; and determining, by the computingsystem, a value of the current play as a difference between the currentexpectation of scoring based on historical statistics of a plurality ofathletes and the previous expectation of scoring and an addition ofscoring generated on the current play, wherein the value is determinedin real-time.
 2. The method of claim 1, wherein the expectation ofscoring is based on an analysis of a number of game states that haveoccurred in past athletic competitions.
 3. The method of claim 1,wherein the expectation of scoring is determined by forward simulation.4. The method of claim 1, wherein the expectation of scoring isdetermined by random value assignment.
 5. The method of claim 1, whereinthe expectation of scoring is the scoring that should occur during asegment of the game.
 6. The method of claim 1 further comprising:identifying at least one athlete involved in the current play; anddistributing at least a portion of the value of the current play to theidentified at least one athlete, wherein the value of the current playis distributed according to the athlete's participation in the currentlyplay.
 7. The method of claim 6, wherein the athlete's participation isbased on an analysis of a number of game states that have occurred inpast athletic competitions.
 8. A computer-readable storage medium whosecontents cause a computing system to determine in real-time an expectedscoring during an athletic competition, the contents cause the computingsystem to: determine a current state in the athletic competition, thecurrent state determined from at least one factor that describes thestate of the athletic competition; determine a previous state in theathletic competition, the previous state determined from at least onefactor that describes the state of the athletic competition; determine acurrent expectation of scoring based on the current state, the currentexpectation of scoring determined from an analysis of a number of statesthat have occurred during past athletic competitions; determine aprevious expectation of scoring for the previous state, the previousexpectation of scoring determined from the analysis of a number ofstates that have occurred during past athletic competitions; anddetermine a value of the current state based at least in part from thecurrent expectation of scoring based on historical statistics of aplurality of athletes and the previous expectation of scoring.
 9. Thecomputer-readable storage medium of claim 8, wherein the at least onefactor includes a current score in the athletic competition.
 10. Thecomputer-readable storage medium of claim 8, wherein the at least onefactor includes an indication of a time in the athletic competition. 11.The computer-readable storage medium of claim 8, wherein the at leastone factor includes an indication of type of surface the athleticcompetition is being contested on.
 12. The computer-readable storagemedium of claim 8, wherein the at least one factor includes anindication of weather condition during the athletic competition.
 13. Thecomputer-readable storage medium of claim 8, wherein the currentexpectation of scoring is an expected of scoring during a segment of theathletic competition.
 14. The computer-readable storage medium of claim8, wherein the athletic competition is a baseball game.
 15. Thecomputer-readable storage medium of claim 8, wherein the athleticcompetition is a football game.
 16. The computer-readable storage mediumof claim 8, wherein the athletic competition is a basketball game. 17.The computer-readable storage medium of claim 8, wherein the athleticcompetition is a golf tournament.
 18. The computer-readable storagemedium of claim 8, wherein the athletic competition is auto racing. 19.The computer-readable storage medium of claim 8, wherein the athleticcompetition is soccer.
 20. The computer-readable storage medium of claim8, wherein the athletic competition is volleyball.
 21. Thecomputer-readable storage medium of claim 8, wherein the athleticcompetition is cycling.
 22. The computer-readable storage medium ofclaim 8, wherein the athletic competition is track and field.
 23. Acomputer-readable storage medium whose contents cause a computing systemto determine in real-time values of plays occurring during a sportscompetition, by: identifying a current play; determining a firstexpectation of scoring prior to the current play, the first expectationof scoring based a first state existing prior to the current play;determining a second expectation of scoring subsequent to the executionthe current play, the second expectation of scoring based on a secondstate existing subsequent to the current play; and determining a valuefor the current play from the first expectation of scoring based onhistorical statistics of a plurality of athletes and the secondexpectation of scoring and an addition of scoring generated from thecurrent play, wherein the first and second states are determined usingat least one condition that describes the sports competition.
 24. Thecomputer-readable storage medium of claim 23, wherein the at least onecondition indicates a current score differential in the sportscompetition.
 25. The computer-readable storage medium of claim 23,wherein the at least one condition indicates a time remaining in thesports competition.
 26. The computer-readable storage medium of claim23, wherein the at least one condition indicates a current position of acompetitor participating in the sports competition.
 27. Acomputer-readable storage medium whose contents cause a computing systemto determine in real-time a value of a play occurring during an athleticcompetition, by: identifying a play occurring during an athleticcompetition; identifying an intermediate state of the play; determininga first intermediate expectation of scoring based on an expectation ofthe intermediate state, the first intermediate expectation of scoringbased on at least one factor that describes the condition of theathletic competition prior to the intermediate state; determining asecond intermediate expectation of scoring based on an actual result ofthe intermediate state, the second intermediate expectation of scoringbased on at least one factor that describes the condition of theathletic competition resulting from the intermediate state; anddetermining a value for the intermediate state based at least in partfrom the first intermediate expectation of scoring based on historicalstatistics of a plurality of athletes and the second intermediateexpectation of scoring.
 28. The computer-readable storage medium ofclaim 27 further comprising contents that cause the computer system todetermine in real-time a value of a play occurring during an athleticcompetition, by: identifying a second intermediate state of the play;determining a third intermediate expectation of scoring based on anactual result of the second intermediate state, the third intermediateexpectation of scoring based on at least one factor that describes thecondition of the athletic competition resulting from the secondintermediate state; and determining a value for the second intermediatestate based at least in part from the second intermediate expectation ofscoring and the third intermediate expectation of scoring, wherein theintermediate state and the second intermediate state represent a flow ofthe play.
 29. The computer-readable storage medium of claim 27, whereinthe intermediate state corresponds to an athlete performance event whichis a measurable component of the play.
 30. A method comprising:identifying, by a computing system, a current play occurring during asports competition; determining, by the computing system, a firstexpectation of scoring prior to the current play, the first expectationof scoring based a first state existing prior to the current play, thefirst state determined using at least one condition that describes thesport competition; determining, by the computing system, a secondexpectation of scoring subsequent to execution of the current play, thesecond expectation of scoring based on a second state existingsubsequent to the current play, the second state determined using atleast one condition that describes the sports competition; anddetermining, by the computing system, a value for the current play fromthe first expectation of scoring based on historical statistics of aplurality of athletes and the second expectation of scoring and scoringgenerated from the current play.
 31. The method of claim 30 furthercomprising providing the determined first expectation of scoring to amedia outlet.
 32. The method of claim 31, wherein the determinedexpectation of scoring is broadcast by the media outlet.
 33. The methodof claim 31, wherein the determined expectation of scoring is displayedby the media outlet within the context of a feed of the sportscompetition.
 34. The method of claim 31 further comprising: providingthe determined second expectation of scoring to the media outlet. 35.The method of claim 30 further comprising broadcasting the determinedexpectation of scoring.